Modelling Non-linear Crowd Dynamics in Bio-PEPA

Emergent phenomena occur due to the pattern of non-linear and distributed local interactions between the elements of a system over time. Surprisingly, agent based crowd models, in which the movement of each individual follows a limited set of simple rules, often re-produce quite closely the emergent behaviour of crowds that can be observed in reality. An example of such phenomena is the spontaneous self-organisation of drinking parties in the squares of cities in Spain, also known as "El Botellon" [20]. We revisit this case study providing an elegant stochastic process algebraic model in Bio-PEPA amenable to several forms of analyses, among which simulation and fluid flow analysis. We show that a fluid flow approximation, i.e. a deterministic reading of the average behaviour of the system, can provide an alternative and efficient way to study the same emergent behaviour as that explored in [20] where simulation was used instead. Besides empirical evidence, also an analytical justification is provided for the good correspondence found between simulation results and the fluid flow approximation

Trend-based analysis of a population model of the AKAP scaffold protein

We formalise a continuous-time Markov chain with multi-dimensional discrete state space model of the AKAP scaffold protein as a crosstalk mediator between two biochemical signalling pathways. The analysis by temporal properties of the AKAP model requires reasoning about whether the counts of individuals of the same type (species) are increasing or decreasing. For this purpose we propose the concept of stochastic trends based on formulating the probabilities of transitions that increase (resp. decrease) the counts of individuals of the same type, and express these probabilities as formulae such that the state space of the model is not altered. We define a number of stochastic trend formulae (e.g. weakly increasing, strictly increasing, weakly decreasing, etc.) and use them to extend the set of state formulae of Continuous Stochastic Logic. We show how stochastic trends can be implemented in a guarded-command style specification language for transition systems. We illustrate the application of stochastic trends with numerous small examples and then we analyse the AKAP model in order to characterise and show causality and pulsating behaviours in this biochemical system

Scalable context-dependent analysis of emergency egress models

Pervasive environments offer an increasing number of services to a large number of people moving within these environments, including timely information about where to go and when, and contextual information about the surrounding environment. This information may be conveyed to people through public displays or direct to a person's mobile phone. People using these services interact with the system but they are also meeting other people and performing other activities as relevant opportunities arise. The design of such systems and the analysis of collective dynamic behaviour of people within them is a challenging problem. We present results on a novel usage of a scalable analysis technique in this context. We show the validity of an approach based on stochastic process-algebraic models by focussing on a representative example, i.e. emergency egress. The chosen case study has the advantage that detailed data is available from studies employing alternative analysis methods, making cross-methodology comparison possible. We also illustrate how realistic, context-dependent human behaviour, often observed in emergency egress, can naturally be embedded in the models, and how the effect of such behaviour on evacuation can be analysed in an efficient and scalable way. The proposed approach encompasses both the agent modelling viewpoint, as system behaviour emerges from specific (discrete) agent interaction, and the population viewpoint, when classes of homogeneous individuals are considered for a (continuous)approximation of overall system behaviour

Programmable models of growth and mutation of cancer-cell populations

In this paper we propose a systematic approach to construct mathematical models describing populations of cancer-cells at different stages of disease development. The methodology we propose is based on stochastic Concurrent Constraint Programming, a flexible stochastic modelling language. The methodology is tested on (and partially motivated by) the study of prostate cancer. In particular, we prove how our method is suitable to systematically reconstruct different mathematical models of prostate cancer growth - together with interactions with different kinds of hormone therapy - at different levels of refinement.Comment: In Proceedings CompMod 2011, arXiv:1109.104

Biocharts: a visual formalism for complex biological systems

We address one of the central issues in devising languages, methods and tools for the modelling and analysis of complex biological systems, that of linking high-level (e.g. intercellular) information with lower-level (e.g. intracellular) information. Adequate ways of dealing with this issue are crucial for understanding biological networks and pathways, which typically contain huge amounts of data that continue to grow as our knowledge and understanding of a system increases. Trying to comprehend such data using the standard methods currently in use is often virtually impossible. We propose a two-tier compound visual language, which we call Biocharts, that is geared towards building fully executable models of biological systems. One of the main goals of our approach is to enable biologists to actively participate in the computational modelling effort, in a natural way. The high-level part of our language is a version of statecharts, which have been shown to be extremely successful in software and systems engineering. The statecharts can be combined with any appropriately well-defined language (preferably a diagrammatic one) for specifying the low-level dynamics of the pathways and networks. We illustrate the language and our general modelling approach using the well-studied process of bacterial chemotaxis

Process algebra modelling styles for biomolecular processes

We investigate how biomolecular processes are modelled in process algebras, focussing on chemical reactions. We consider various modelling styles and how design decisions made in the definition of the process algebra have an impact on how a modelling style can be applied. Our goal is to highlight the often implicit choices that modellers make in choosing a formalism, and illustrate, through the use of examples, how this can affect expressability as well as the type and complexity of the analysis that can be performed

Complementary approaches to understanding the plant circadian clock

Circadian clocks are oscillatory genetic networks that help organisms adapt to the 24-hour day/night cycle. The clock of the green alga Ostreococcus tauri is the simplest plant clock discovered so far. Its many advantages as an experimental system facilitate the testing of computational predictions. We present a model of the Ostreococcus clock in the stochastic process algebra Bio-PEPA and exploit its mapping to different analysis techniques, such as ordinary differential equations, stochastic simulation algorithms and model-checking. The small number of molecules reported for this system tests the limits of the continuous approximation underlying differential equations. We investigate the difference between continuous-deterministic and discrete-stochastic approaches. Stochastic simulation and model-checking allow us to formulate new hypotheses on the system behaviour, such as the presence of self-sustained oscillations in single cells under constant light conditions. We investigate how to model the timing of dawn and dusk in the context of model-checking, which we use to compute how the probability distributions of key biochemical species change over time. These show that the relative variation in expression level is smallest at the time of peak expression, making peak time an optimal experimental phase marker. Building on these analyses, we use approaches from evolutionary systems biology to investigate how changes in the rate of mRNA degradation impacts the phase of a key protein likely to affect fitness. We explore how robust this circadian clock is towards such potential mutational changes in its underlying biochemistry. Our work shows that multiple approaches lead to a more complete understanding of the clock

Process Algebra with Layers: Multi-scale Integration Modelling applied to Cancer Therapy

We present a novel Process Algebra designed for multi-scale integration modelling: Process Algebra with Layers (PAL). The unique feature of PAL is the modularisation of scale into integrated layers: Object and Population. An Object can represent a molecule, organelle, cell, tissue, organ or any organism. Populations hold specific types of Object, for example, life stages, cell phases and infectious states. The syntax and semantics of this novel language are presented. A PAL model of the multi-scale system of cell growth and damage from cancer treatment is given. This model allows the analysis of different scales of the system. The Object and Population levels give insight into the length of a cell cycle and cell population growth respectively. The PAL model results are compared to wet laboratory survival fractions of cells given different doses of radiation treatment [1]. This comparison shows how PAL can be used to aid in investigations of cancer treatment in systems biology